Why did the Tories win in 1983?

This piece will focus on the Thursday 9^th June 1983 election. This election was won by the Conservative Party with 339 seats, a majority of 144 seats, with over 13 million votes casted for Margaret Thatcher’s party, and secured 42.4% votes. Thatcher’s Conservatives gained an extra 58 seats. There was a turn out of 72.9% and the Labour Party, under the leader Michael Foot, managed to obtain 209 seats and 8 million votes and lost 60 seats and only got 27% of all votes cast. Although the result was disastrous for Labour, they still managed to be the second biggest party and so formed the opposition. The third biggest party, which obtained 7 million votes, was the coalition between the SDP and Liberal parties only managed to get 23 seats. This landslide election allowed Thatcher to have a stronger reign over her party and the majority of 144 seats remains the highest Conservative win to date. Crucially, however, and as E.H.H. Green states in his ‘Thatcher’ book, Thatcher lost a percentage of voters from 43.4% to 42.4% - a trend that continued into the 1987 election. However, the 1983 election was a resounding success for Thatcher and the reasons as to why she won it will now be explored.

The first reason as to why the Conservatives won was due to first past the post. First past the post meant that there were fewer Conservative votes needed for a Conservative landslide. Indeed, it was due to first past the post that the Liberals and SDP managed to get two hundred seats fewer than Labour even though there was only a difference of a million votes between them. First past the post always favours the winning party, and since the Conservatives won the 1979 election, they were in a strong position to win the subsequent election. It was first past the post that cost the Liberals-SDP alliance seats as well and so the Conservatives were not at as much a disadvantage as if they had been if they were a new party.

The second reason as to why the Conservatives won in 1983 was due to the split in the Labour Party and the ultimate formation of the centre-left SDP-Liberal alliance. Although it was deemed a threat by Conservative insiders in 1981 when the party was at its height in terms of popularity, it failed to match the government’s popularity when it came to the general election. There was almost double the votes for the Conservatives than there were for the SDP-Liberal Alliance. It would have been more of a threat to Thatcher and the Conservative Party if the Liberal Alliance had joined Labour rather than breaking away from the party in 1981 as there then would have been a combined total of 15 million votes to Thatcher’s 13 million. However, that was not the case, as members of the Labour Party broke away from Michael Foot because they thought he was too left-wing. The fact that the centre-left and left members of the electorate were divided helped the smaller right-wing members win the election. There was no direct right-wing competitor to the Conservative Party as there was to the Labour Party and the SDP. Moreover, polling demonstrated that the Alliance was taking more votes away from the Labour Party than it was from the Conservative Party.

As Charles Moore states in his ‘Margaret Thatcher: The Authorized Biography, Volume Two’, ‘the Conservatives were almost bound to win the general election of 1983’. He goes onto state that ‘the Falklands effect was too strong and the Labour Party, under the leadership of Michael Foot, too weak for any other result to be at all likely’. This is true; however, what Moore ignores is the fact that the Falklands effect was not the main factor when it came to people voting Conservative. For example, voters were asked for their views on a range of issues (as shown by Britto’s poll from June 1983), and the Conservative Party were thought to be more strong in law and order; rising prices; controlling trade unions and dealing with the common market. Moreover, in polling that was conducted between the 6^th and 7^th May 1983 for the Conservative Party, that was entitled ‘Summary of Main Findings of a Survey of the National Political Mood’ stated that 93% of those who voted Conservative in the past intended to do so again; the results for Labour and the SDLP-Liberal Alliance were below 80% for this same question. The fact there were more loyal supporters for the Conservative Party certainly helped them to clinch victory. Hence, although it cannot be denied that the Falklands factor was a significant one, it was by no means the only one and it is likely the Conservatives would have won the 1983 election even if the invasion had not happened. In addition to this, the economy was performing much better than how it was in 1981 and so this would have played on people’s minds.

Moore is correct when he talks of Foot being an incompetent leader. For example, Foot did not reach out beyond his base and held rallies in cities which were more likely to vote Labour (such as in Bristol) and did not try to broaden his appeal to voters who were not Labour. Compared with the Conservative campaign, the Labour Party campaign was hurried and quick, and speeches tended to focus on how they opposed Thatcher rather on what they could do to solve the country’s issues. Furthermore, the economy, which was on the forefront of most people’s minds were not trusted with this particular Labour shadow cabinet. The way in which the Labour Party planned for a general election was haphazard compared with the Conservatives. Most importantly, Foot did not surround himself with people who knew how to win an election, preferring to rely on people such as Seamus Milne and Dennis Healy. In contrast to this, Thatcher brought a special advisor in, Gordon Reece, in 1979, four years before the general election, in order how to establish the Conservatives could win the next election.

John Campbell is another historian who stated it was certain that Thatcher would win the next general election of 1983 due to the Falklands (in his ‘Margaret Thatcher – From Grocer’s Daughter to Iron Lady’). However, what historians such as Campbell and Moore ignore, is the fact that the Conservatives had been meticulously planning for an election (although at this point they did not know when it was going to be held) for years before it had actually happened. The Conservative Party did not just rely on an unpopular leader (Foot) or a popular war; they had prepared their work so Thatcher would be able to win a big majority. They managed to consolidate their votes throughout the election campaign; the Conservative Party managed to pick up more votes from undecided voters than any other party. Moreover, Thatcher made herself more accessible in the election campaign by appearing on TV and addressing a variety of people whereas Foot stuck to his rallies. Importantly, and what Campbell and Moore ignore, and as shown by the Margaret Thatcher Foundation, ‘the Conservatives were wary of doing anything that might be seen to be cashing in on the war…they deliberately left it in the background’. Hence, the Falklands War was a significant factor as it showed that the Conservatives were tough on law and order; however, there was not much discussion about the Falklands War (which at this point had happened over a year ago) for the Conservatives to classify this as a ‘war’ election. There were a variety of reasons as to why the Conservatives won the 1983 election, with the Falklands war being a significant factor; however, crucially, it was not the main factor. In addition to this, David Sanders, Hugh Ward, David March and Tony Fletcher in their ‘Government Popularity and the Falklands War: A Reassessment’ can be agreed with as they state the Falklands War was not the only factor. They point to the economy doing better in 1982 being the main one. Indeed, Thatcher herself thought it was due to economics as she wrote in her memoirs in 1993 that ‘the 1983 general election result was the single most devastating defeat ever inflicted upon democratic socialism in Britain’.

Importantly, the timing of the election was also important. It is doubtful if Thatcher would have won in 1981 (or even in 1990) because her polling figures were low. She had better polling figures in 1983 which translated into more votes. Moreover, the election campaign throughout May and the first week of June in 1983 was tight. For example, she was consulted with a team each day, and the Conservative Party did weekly internal polls to show how she was doing. None of this occurred with the Labour Party, who were by all standards, quite unprepared to face an election.

In conclusion, the Conservative Party won the June 9^th 1983 election due to a variety of important factors. Timing was key; an unpopular leader helped; and the Falklands War was a significant, but not a crucial, factor. The 1983 election helped Thatcher be more bold in her policies in the second administration and as already mentioned, was the most decisive landslide election.